tower; "Come, let us build ourselves a city, and a tower whose top is in the heavens; let us make a And the deeper the illusions, the worse is the reckoning when it comes. The last sabbath year was in 2014-2015 and the last yubilee-year was in 1972-1973. Yes, its a construction and as for all constructions affecting us, it might be a smart ting having a look at it in order to understand it. It shall be a jubilee for you, and each of you shall return to his own property, and each of you shall return to his family. Unfortunately, markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally! came crashing down to earth. In the year 2000-2001 we have seen the DOTCOM bubble pop. This served to reinforce their reliance on God and decrease their reliance on their own initiative, which is exactly what the Lord wanted to happen. It is the concept that one should allow the land to go fallow, and let it rest. Founder slams mozilla foundation cryptocurrency. THE STOCK MARKET WILL CRASH! Well, if we compare the Shemitah years with the financial markets we can see a very interesting correlation. In this way we gain (photo credit: AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov). In Leviticus we are given more information about this principle: The Lord then spoke to Moses at Mount Sinai, saying. More importantly, its a midterm election year, traditionally the weakest of the four-year cycle. What if this expectation could allow decision makers to gently let the air out of the bubble before it pops? There can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investment strategies devised or undertaken by Reppond Investments, Inc.) will be profitable for a clients or prospective clients portfolio. name for ourselves", "Who say in pride and arrogance of heart: The bricks have fallen down, but we will rebuild with He described within it, as part of a series of harbingers to judgment affecting the United States and the world, a concept related to an old Jewish law often called the Shemitah (The Harbinger, p. 153). The stock market follows and amplifies the cycle. Or as Keynes himself expressed it more pithily, markets can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.. In this chart, an increase in the unemployment rate indicates a downturn in the economy, because higher unemployment usually follows significant economic crashes. Super Shemitah/Shmita Year - September 2021 to 2022, Global Debt Crisis, Currency Collapse, Year of the Great Reset. The comparison of the volatility of Reppond Investments, Inc.s strategies to the volatility of any stock market index is for illustrative purposes only. The fears are paper tigers. All or some of these data points would be expected to correlate to the Shemitah years and show up as downturns, if there is really an effect that God designed into the economic systems of the world. Thx OP. This happened to be as well a Shemitah year. In case of abuse, In this Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014 photo, Gilad Fine, a religious Jewish farmer from Bnei Netzarim, stands inside his greenhouse, between the southern tip of the Gaza Strip and the Egyptian border. One of the main purposes of the Sabbaths and Shemitahs was to put a damper on the lust for more money and material things, and through this process help return the hearts of the people back to a reliance on God, who is after all the only true source of everything that we have in life. The reason why this never-ending story takes economists by surprise time and again is that its an article of faith for most of them that human beings are rational. then I will so order My blessing for you in the sixth year that it will bring forth the crop for three years. Unfortunately, some conclusions based upon Biblical cherry-picking often result in ideas that become so popular that overcoming them with real data is difficult. In addition, although the Shemitah of 1930-1931 occurred right in the middle of the long stock market slide at the beginning of the Great Depression, the Shemitah year did not occur during the Dows initial severe collapse during the fall of 1929. Unfortunately, markets have frequently taken this suggestion quite literally! This law ensured that Hebrew slaves would not be held as slaves forever, regardless of the debt they owed or the situation they found themselves in. Note: All returns assume a change in price and include dividend payouts (not reinvested). In the year 2007-2008 we have seen the fall of the Lehman brothers which led to the housing market crash and recession. Rigel senior . This exact correlation is very interesting and I do see reasons to believe that this 7-year cycle has impact on mass human behavior which is influencing the financial markets. Thus, although the economic busts that he relates to Shemitahs really did occur, the book leaves us with an incomplete picture of the actual statistical significance of the phenomenon. To All performance results have been compiled solely by Reppond Investments, Inc. and are from sources we believe to be reliable. How can the Torahs idealistic instruction to cease agricultural labor for one year every seven apply to a 24/7 post-industrial reality? This 1.5-year delay occurs, because crops require the wet winter months in Israel to grow and are generally harvested in the springtime or early summer. Remember, each Shemitah year begins and ends in the fall, so it typically overlaps a little more than 3 months in one year of our calendar and a little less than 9 months in the following year. There is basically no systematic effect. Yields on 30-year Treasuries jumped some 200 basis points in the first nine months of the year, hammering investors and financial firms, not to mention thrusting Mexico into crisis and bankrupting Orange County. Shemitah, the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, has several times in the past brought immense financial hardships to the world. For instance, there were significant declines in 2003 and 2011 that were both in the middle of the subsequent Shemitah cycles and did not correspond to the Shemitah years or their wakes. If the rise of a In some cases, the rate increased during the Shemitah, while in other cases the increase occurred after the Shemitah year was over (in its wake). The opinions, facts and any media content in them are presented solely by the authors, and neither The Times of Israel nor its partners assume any responsibility for them. Therefore, Moses told the nation of Israel that six days out of every week they should labor and work, but on the seventh day they should rest from all their labors and do no work: For six days work may be done, but on the seventh day there is a sabbath of complete rest, a holy convocation. Thus, every year some seeds would drop to the ground during harvest and result in new plants growing the next year. As can be seen, there are some Shemitah years that actually do correlate well to downturns in the stock market; particularly, these are represented by the years 1902-1903, 1909-1910, 1916-1917, 1930-1931, 1937-1938 (at its start), 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1986-1987, 2000-2001, 2007-2008, and 2014-2015. Also, on the seventh year, all debts were to be forgiven (Deuteronomy 15:1-11). 1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Seven Shemitahs is simply equal to 77 years or a total of 49 years. From my perspective, its all quite weird. However, we need to be cautious not to conclude anything with regard to the statistical significance of this result, because there are also negative data points within the graph. 1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash. The beginning of American to rise to world power. The law only required that no one actually plant, harvest, and sell the crops for that year, but that the fruit of the aftergrowth would be available for all to access and consume without charge. Notice the Shmita was nearly the low. Shmita is the wiping away of that which has been built up. Your email address will not be published. 1972-1973 Shmita Year - 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and Global recession. There's been a major financial disruption in seven of the eight Shmita years dating back to 1966: Read more However, the Shemitah years represented by 1951-1952, 1958-1959, 1986-1987, 1993-1994, and 2014-2015 all occurred during times of low unemployment and with no subsequent rate increases. Corresponding to the number of years after the jubilee, you shall buy from your friend; he is to sell to you according to the number of years of crops. Press J to jump to the feed. To follow these laws, the people had to have a strong faith in God that He would get them through the years of no planting, no harvesting, and all this combined with the major economic releases of debt and property. It's a short list of events that have corresponded with the shemita since 1900: 1901-1902 - 46% of the US stock market value wiped out. Enrol now and become a profitable trader! Its boring and time consuming, but the very episodes mentioned above may make it less boring. Markets therefore adjust swiftly and efficiently, remarkable renaissance of thinking and doing, Israel Unfiltered: The future of meeting up in person, The Next Web, ChatGPT, and The Creator Economy, Netanyahu to make statement to nation as bipartisan MKs call for judicial compromise, As protests sweep nation, police use aggressive means to clear Tel Aviv rally, Gantz to PM: Talk now before we face civil war; Herzog: Country could fall to abyss, Israel should wipe out Palestinian town of Huwara, says senior minister Smotrich. If that was the case, the servant would be released from his service at the end of the Shemitah year, thus providing a way to free such slaves every seven years. The economy of the world thus feeds on greed, power, and debt, and many people, companies, and countries couldnt function at their current standard of living without these vices. What if we could engender the expectation that the seventh year will be a year of readjustment in national or global economics? Now, Im nowhere near as confident as Mr. Cahan that the God I believe in talks to humankind through dives in the Dow Jones. towers fell. Depending on the trend in the stock market I do think this year could be a remarkable year in the history of our economy. Many would say that this is because it cant. Let me show you. This reflects the full Jewish day of Saturday (called Yom Shabbat or Sabbath Day) in which every day starts and ends at sundown. and lie still." For instance, in the following figure, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stretching from the year 1900 to the autumn of 2015 is mapped with the Shemitah years highlighted as transparent yellow bars on top of the curve. According to recent publications, some authors have claimed that there really is such a force at work in our world. The Shmita year starts every 7th year on Elul 29 on the Biblical Calendar on the Feast of Trumpets. From the following table it can be seen that 14 out of the 20 most significant point drops correlate to a Shemitah year or its wake. Seeing that the Shemitah Effect includes a year-long event related to the cessation of the agricultural market and an end-of-year effect related to the remission of debt (end-of-year in the Jewish Civil Calendar being in the September-October time frame in the Gregorian Calendar), if there exists any broader impact on the worlds economy this might be reflected in economic downturns during and immediately after these periods. This was before the war in Ukraine and the exponential price growth of several crucial commodities, which are all said to be consequences of the war. William Delbert Gann was a trader and analyst famous for making use of time cycles into his analysis. In the same chapter of Leviticus where the Shemitah laws were revealed, Moses went on to describe the laws related to the year of Jubilee: You are also to count off seven sabbaths of years for yourself, seven times seven years, so that you have the time of the seven sabbaths of years, namely, forty-nine years. The US has inherited the Biblical blessings and curses. Here is the crazy thing, the actual returns are different for the Shmita years. The conference call can be accessed live over the phone by dialing (412) 317-6346 or (844) 204-8586 from the U.S. Callers from Brazil can dial +55 11 3181-8565. (Its a translation with an introduction of part of Rav Kooks great book on Shmita, Shabbat Haaretz, since you are kind enough to ask.). Decisions are often based on knowledge, so increasing your knowledge is a great thing. 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