The companies with the most disciplined approach, however, often use a combination of processes and tools to look at risks during different time frames and with different rates of periodic review. It is by no means certain that they are ready for the next major crisis, experts say. Improve your understanding and modeling of country and economic risk across countries and sectors. Such a consensus can create a set of guiding principlesand, as importantly, a set of trust-based relationships and mutual understanding across the organizationthat enables rapid, purposeful reaction grounded in a shared set of priorities when risk scenarios play out. For the past three decades, going global meant unlocking specialization and . And differences can dissolve into disagreements about risk and Case Study 1 Nonetheless, the results highlighted the need for banks to embed political analysis into risk-based decision-making. The Company: International Consulting Company is a global consulting firm based in Hong Kong. But in the age of instant information, the story a company tells about itself in one market wont stay there. Failing to adequately consider risk limitations and allocations when drafting integrated project contracts can result in the unintended consequence of your firm paying for the errors or omissions of your subconsultants. Companies should also be vigilant about risks presented by suppliers. Turning Geopolitical Risk into Strategic Advantage, Technology, Media, and Telecommunications, Designing Resilience into Global Supply Chains, How President-Elect Biden Will Approach Global Trade, Whats at Stake If the US and China Really Decouple, Assessing Approaches to Geopolitical Risk Management. iStrategic LLC is a Political Risk Analysis and Consulting firm specializing in the Middle East and North Africa region. We grouped companies into four general archetypes according to the extent to which they recognize and act on opportunities arising from geopolitical shiftsin addition to mitigating the downside risksand the intensity of focus and sophistication of processes with their organizations. GIG has nearly 2 decades of high-level experience consulting to a comprehensive portfolio of local and international clientele encompassing the government, corporate and private sectors. From project or investment selection, through market entry and ongoing risk monitoring and management, we can support you with actionable intelligence, business relevant forecasts, and tailored solutions. Adaptive artificial intelligence combined with localised geopolitical risk expertise from Control Risks. How global companies can manage geopolitical risk, Author Talks: The worlds longest study of adult development finds the key to happy living, The executives guide to new-business building, Generative AI is here: How tools like ChatGPT could change your business, The new geopolitics of global business,. Managing risk in today's environment is complex. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. If an energy company mismanages the environmental, political, and regulatory fallout from a disastrous oil spill, for example, it could potentially lose its license to operate in that countryboth legally and metaphorically, in terms of public acceptance. Others may opt to identify as global entities because of the access it accords them to pursue business opportunities in emerging markets. All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. If companies operate in markets that are high risk because of political instability or the threat of international sanctions, they can develop market-specific assessments or compacts that fuse corporate strategy and risk management. . SVA. "Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks' customers have expanded significantly in recent years," according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. With tectonic shifts in geopolitics rumbling from Chinas reemergence on the global stage, a climate crisis, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, companies must be on guard. International Business, March 30, 2021 As one of the country's top political consulting firms, Global Strategy Group has worked with many diverse and high-profile clients to serve a range of unique needs. Site by Odgis+Co and ICVM Group. We provide geopolitical risk consulting and advisory services and solutions that are timely, market-relevant and forward-looking. Cultural Missteps Sophisticated geopolitical risk management can also help investors identify arbitrage opportunities. Economic and Geopolitical scenarios Indeed, in its most recent geopolitical risk dashboard, the BlackRock Investment Institute put a technological decoupling between China and the United States as the third highest risk, with a widening of the conflict in Ukraine between NATO and Russia and major cyber-attacks causing significant damage to infrastructure and financial markets seen as the top two risks. Below are several examples in which Kroll was able to help clients anticipate the type, probability and impact of geopolitical volatility on its operations in key emerging markets. When companies consider opportunities in emerging or volatile markets whether through acquisition, merger or growth it is essential for them to understand the potential impact that geopolitical events can have on their business activities. The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly and creates multi-dimensional challenges for global organisations. }, Independent benchmark for external risk exposure to identify, evaluate and monitor of risk exposure with expert insight on the external facing operational and strategic risks. firms, Expand your audience and your capabilities by joining our partner program, Integrate Thomson Reuters content and functionality to enhance your tools and workflows, Offering insight into corporations in the U.S. and abroad, Insights on issues concerning environmental, social, and governance topics, A look into the inner workings of government and the courts, Legal coverage focusing on the business and practice of law, Featuring an expanded insight into the world of tax professionals, Technology and innovation resource center, Exploring how technology and innovation will influence the evolution of future services, About Thomson Companies also have been attempting to measure the impact of their lobbying efforts on governments, such as by benchmarking the success of their advocacy compared with that of their industry peers or estimating potential cost savings. Reuters, The EY survey last year on bank risk management, Monitoring for Reg BI poses bigger challenge as US regulators get serious, Weighing the various approaches to Scope 3 data strategies, 10 Global compliance concerns for 2023: ESG, money-laundering, and regulatory concerns weigh on compliance officers, From values signaling to implementation: Steps for corporate tax leaders to prepare for ESG, Thomson Reuters Institute launches Technology and Innovation Resource Center, Small law firms finding success & challenges in uncertain economy, says new report, Innovation Holistic-risk evaluators have the most highly developed geopolitical risk management operations. Unfortunately, geopolitical risk commonly is misunderstood by the Some foreign firms, who were perceived as having received favoritism from the Ethiopian government, were specifically targeted by protesters and the government had to declare multiple states of emergencies that were extremely disruptive to the business operations of those foreign firms. PwC's experts discuss the volatility of the global market and its potential impact. Integrate geopolitical signals and risk assessment into strategic-planning processes and define actionable strategies to both protect the business and take advantage of emerging opportunities. We evaluated their organizations approaches along three dimensions: the strategic role of geopolitical risk management within the company, the ways in which different parts of the organization are leveraged, and the use of risk management processes and tools. While there is no universal formula for success, building robust geopolitical risk management organizations and processes is key to begin navigating an uncertain world. The EY survey last year on bank risk management noted that chief risk officers may be underestimating the potency of political change (with) only about half viewing (geo)political risks as among the most important emerging risks over a five-year horizon this is down from 60% in our last survey in 2019. Governments can confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries. The geopolitical risk firm that helps you understand the world. Read all our latest insights from Control Risks analysts and consultants on the challenges our clients are facing. Thats one finding from the US National Intelligence Councils report Global Trends 2040: A more contested world. CFOs' assessments of the economy in Q3. For decades, companies built their . The decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, and investment. Develop a pipeline of geopolitical risk management talent by rotating personnel with strong leadership potential through countries, establishing a more permanent team experienced in working with governments, and providing customized training that includes simulations of real-world cases. (See Exhibit 1.) We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. Geopolitical Risk – What Is It and How Can Companies Respond To It? Business strategy and operational efficiency require constant evaluation in a complex and often volatile environment. many global companies are seeking their own form of strategic autonomy to navigate ChinaUS relations. 2023 Kroll, LLC. Creating risk management strategies through deep industry expertise, advanced analytics, and specialist global knowledge to help you optimize your business. Country risk mapping. A counterparty who defaults on a contract, or whose business . Derek Leatherdale and Hanif Barma from the Risk Coalition identify in this article the key things that any board or risk committee should consider in the context of the complex and volatile geopolitical environment in which business now operates. Because the company sells its products almost everywhere, problems that pop up in one country often may have already been solved in another. The negative effects of climate change and progressively severe and frequent extreme weather events are becoming harder to ignore. Questions to ask about key business risks arising from geopolitical and related crises Strategic, operational, financial and compliance risks are common level-one risk categories that board members and management need to consider. Many companies, both financial and non-financial, were caught off guard, despite Putin having telegraphed his intentions for months in advance. Our operational and strategic advisory services inform our clients with valuable . Our methodology allows us to assess differences in operating models and the degree of process maturity relative to industry practices as well as to identify opportunities for improvement. Companies are walking a geopolitical tightrope. Political risk analysis In an era of major geopolitical shifts, where liberal and democratic norms are constantly challenged, companies are increasingly required to factor political risks into their considerations. MAX's Geopolitical Intelligence Services knows your part of the world because we're part of it too. 5-minute read. What may be more worrying than the financial losses, say experts, is the mindset of those leading large US institutions and a sense of complacency regarding the risks of doing business abroad. trust us to help them make informed decisions, Professional services 2. Start with the board Many company boards already deliberate geopolitical risks to one degree or another. Meanwhile continuing shortages of raw materials (39%), logistics and warehousing (35%) and components (33%) are all . We hosted our 6th annual Top 10 Geopolitical Risks event today with KPMG global alliance partner, Eurasia Group, and we highlighted the relevance of the risks Internationally it poses increasing management challenges, particularly at board level. Geopolitical events can manifest themselves in many ways. Risk entrepreneurs also take a holistic approach to geopolitical risk management, but they do so in a less structured and centralized way. The value of being able to anticipate, synthesize, and harness risk for potential gain has never been greater. by A quick message or email to the global functional marketing, finance, or risk community, the company told us, allows for rapid troubleshooting, the cross-pollination of insights, and the sharing of best practices. Expropriation One Western energy company, for instance, credited the skills and transparency of its government relations staff for being able to operate simultaneously in two Middle Eastern nations despite strong political tensions between the two governments. The firm's new geopolitical advisory team is being launched as multinational corporations grapple with volatile events around the world, from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to simmering tensions. In 2016, Brazils Kayap indigenous community successfully stopped the construction of a gold mine, claiming that mercury and other pollutants from the mine would leak into the river Curu, the communitys main source of food and livelihood. According to our research, the consistent winners apply a highly developed approach to geopolitical risk management that emphasizes opportunity rather than just mitigation, involves the entire organization, and leverages sophisticated and robust analytical processes. "autoplaySpeed":8000 This website uses cookies. Capital reserves, credit portfolios, investment policies and capital and debt profiles all demand constant scrutiny to adequately manage and mitigate risk. New market entry Depending on the circumstance, a companys leaders may have to weigh the effect that political or media scrutiny on the companys operations in one area has on its holdings in other locales. Something went wrong. . Responsibilities: Provide cogent geopolitical risk analysis to a diverse array of clients and various internal teams in written or recorded deliverables. Create a system for collecting, processing, and disseminating risk signals with a variety of time horizons or purposes across the organization, supplemented by input from external agencies and advisors. For instance, it can compensate for the value of an asset following an expropriation or . Adept & highly organized self-stater. Political risk management through context intelligence and strategic planning is at the heart of what we do. A major global technology company offers another good illustration. We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. Today, the company has offices in New York, Washington, and London, as well as a network of experts and resources around the world. & account inquiries, For CA: Do not sell my personal information. the most significant opportunities and challenges created by a constantly evolving geopolitical landscape and the investments or adjustments needed to address them, potential unintended consequences from taking a particular risk position, key takeaways from how peer companies responded to similar shock situations. Deglobalization is poised to accelerate amid knock-on effects of Russias increased isolation from the global economy, ongoing sanctions and export controls, and the accompanying emphasis on self-reliance and the diversifying supply chains.. Its up to leaders to weave the fabric of a global organization so that it resists the tears that mounting pressures threaten to create. However, it added, only a subset of chief risk officers (CROs) recognize this.. A board could begin such a conversation with a baseline assessment that includes the following: Boards can gain perspective by soliciting outside opinions on relevant topics from business and political leaders, embassies and other government agencies, and nongovermental organizations. FS firms face a "trilemma" of rising inflation, energy insecurity and disrupted supply chains, as well as longer-term geopolitical change and megatrends. Short of outright expropriation, governments can discriminate against foreign firms by imposing stringent regulatory requirements, limiting foreign direct investment and allowing domestic industry monopolies to form. In the aftermath of the US presidential election, CFOs appeared very optimisticwith that quarter's survey registering the sharpest uptick in sentiment in its seven-year history. Partner & Director, Global Trade & Investment, Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, Energy Practice. In extreme cases, a disruptive event can jeopardize an entire business. "autoplay":true, As political frictions inside and among regions heat up, the likelihood increases that they will affect a global enterprises operations, performance, or people. Even leading global companies within the same industry can differ sharply, depending on their corporate cultures and geopolitical risk appetites. Any investment in taxable fixed-income securities is subject to certain risks, including credit risk, interest-rate risk, foreign risk, and currency risk. Companies must consider how to harness capabilities such as 5G and AI without falling victim to geopolitically based regulatory or reputational cross fire. Geopolitics is "the study of the effects of Earth's geography (human and physical) on politics and international relations.". In 2020, it will move beyond strategic tech . 3 Commodity prices rose sharply 4 after Russia . Case Study 2 Industries that are positively exposed to geopolitical risks suffer a decline in investment that is larger than the aggregate effect. Yet, companies find Geopolitical Risk difficult to fully understand and even more challenging to manage. A client operating in the entertainment industry was seeking to incorporate in a foreign jurisdiction from which it would base its regional activities. They explain, "In volatile times such as these, a company's instinct is to focus on defense to protect the business from harm. In addition to their normal duties, country chairs are responsible for liaising with all external stakeholdersincluding national and local governments, community organizations, and other enterprises. According to the report, no single locale is likely to dominate all regions or domains, and a broader range of actors will compete to advance their ideologies, goals, and interests.. Subscribed to {PRACTICE_NAME} email alerts. Resource shortages likely to disrupt critical supply chains in South Africa, US Weekly Economic Commentary: Stubborn inflation clouds the outlook, Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down as energy crisis recedes, The global economy moves forward, averting recession, #China is set to cut its #crude throughputs in March from the recent highs in February as maintenance season starts https://t.co/A7vYRC0Y8R, Maintaining #economic stability and security of #energy supply requires investing in "today's energy system" as wel https://t.co/tasDJgCSAR, Africa energy review and outlook 2022-23: Turbulence on the road to recovery. @ Thomson Reuters, Sales In such discussions, its of utmost importance to make sure that all affected geographic regions are represented. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. Australia. Full-Time. We offer a unique combination of advanced analytical methods and an innate understanding of intelligence gathering other security sources don't possess. Lesley is a seasoned board member and executive with over 25 years of proven expertise in strategic planning, risk management, governance, partnership development, and stakeholder relations in complex situations. 5. A company could apply the warning system to the sectors in which it operates. Accurately forecast, quantify, and compare the financial viability of new investments and existing business activities by sector and project type, Bespoke Risk Scoring Intelligence-led solutions for underwriters and insurance exposure management teams to efficiently identify, evaluate and monitor risks and opportunities at country, region and location specific levels, A credible, independent view of external operational and strategic risks and the tools to integrate those risks into your financial evaluation, Improve the quality of investment decision-making with pressure-tested macroeconomic and sector inputs, expert political analysis and scenario alternatives, {"items" : [ The role is responsible for ensuring that the People Safety & Security (PS&S) team are supported by leading Nokia's Crisis Management system in response to physical risks that impact Nokia operations. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, age, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity / expression, national origin, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected under federal, state or local law, where applicable, and those with criminal histories will be considered in a manner consistent with applicable state and local laws.Pursuant to Transparency in Coverage final rules (85 FR 72158) set forth in the United States by The Departments of the Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services click here to access required Machine Readable Files or here to access the Federal No Surprises Bill Act Disclosure. 2023 Geopolitical Outlook . Holistic-risk evaluators have the most highly developed geopolitical risk management operations. Not surprisingly, several oil and gas companieswhich often make large, long-term investments in high-risk countries amid frequently shifting environmental-protection policiesfall in this category. Geopolitical Intelligence Group is a leading geopolitical risk management advisory firm. (2019). Integrated solutions - consulting, risk management and broking - to help organizations prevent and protect against interlinked geopolitical risks. (See Exhibit 2.). Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. Leaders face an uncertain landscape. Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself in a specific way, if that narrative could create conflicts with external or internal stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. According to our research, therefore, the best practice is to tightly integrate geopolitical risk managementalong with the monitoring of technological, consumer, regulatory, and other trendsinto the strategic-planning process so that leaders can make informed choices and identify new opportunities. And a narrative that works in one place could inhibit market opportunities in another or create sensitivities among regions. Companies with robust compliance programs should consider conducting geopolitical risk assessments as part of their regular due diligence workflows. | Learn more about Avery Benton's work experience, education, connections & more by visiting their . Many governments have introduced laws requiring companies to take actions to mitigate the risk of adverse human rights impacts. and risk management resources for todays professional services Sometimes, the payoff is simply that the company can continue doing business as usual. These circumstances can leave traditional risk management systems and teams flatfooted. Whether the billions of dollars in losses linked to Russias invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions have prompted big banks to increase their geopolitical expertise remains unclear. ), policy decisions (limits to foreign direct investment, tolerance of corrupt elites, etc.) "dots": false, Convert risk into opportunity with bespoke solutions. In such sessions, the high-level stakeholders can discuss the companys potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts. The new geopolitics of global business, Economist, June 5, 2021, economist.com. Geopolitics, corporate governance and ESG. Major geopolitical events can often arise quickly and unpredictably. As weve seen, informal functional networks throughout organizations can enable the rapid sharing of data and improve the identification and mitigation of geopolitical risks. 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